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Monday, April 19, 2010

A Portfolio built around the Obama Doctrine

Last week, President Obama attended the Nuclear Security Summit with the objective of laying out a plan for moving closer towards a "nuclear-free world". Several leaders from various countries gathered to discuss how the world should tolerate nuclear weapons. President Obama proposed the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START). This calls for a 30% reduction of nuclear forces for the US and Russia. I'm not sure of the motives behind this; perhaps creating an example for the rest of the world to follow? If so, the possibility of that goal is bleak. Let's face it, we live in a dangerous world, and the US is very much hated.
The post 9/11 mentality should make national security a top priority for this country. Instead, we fall back while others plot destruction. North Korea adds to their nuclear weapons activity, and Iran is still developing nukes. The world needs to be stern with these countries and enforce penalties. The Nuclear Summit should have clearly established rules and protocols for dealing with nuclear threats. These two dangerous countries all pose threats to others, which should provide enough reason to halt their production of nuclear weapons. North Korea constantly made threats against the US last summer. Remember Kim Jong Ill's forceful attitude towards the US; those nuclear threats were serious. Iran wants Israel wiped off the map and hates America, meanwhile, they continue to develop nukes. Tougher sanctions are needed, and less rhetoric about peace talks.
I always seek the solution of playing their game, because it usually works. You've got to play the loser to beat the loser, and that calls for a President with a stiff spine. Obama has continued to back away and bow down to enemies who clearly are against our nation. I do see signs of hope for him, but the world is waiting for tough actions.
The main reason why enforcing trade sanctions on Iran are difficult is because of outside interest. China is now the largest trader with Iran, and Russia along with other speculators profit from an unstable Middle East. If Iran's trade is limited, China will not get the resources that they demand from that region. Also, if Iran keeps nukes, the threats in the region will escalate and drive oil prices higher and benefit the bottom line of countries like Russia.
There are companies in the US that will hurt from President Obama's decision to decrease our nuclear forces. Northrop Grumman (NCO) has major contracts to engineer modern land based nuclear ICBMs. Their stock has continued a long trend over the past year as threats against the US grew. However, it is evident that they will experience a decline because of our nuclear pullback.
One cannot forget Obama's recent decision to incorporate other countries in our space missions. NASA has a history of budget issues, and certain programs had to be cut. This is understandable, but for security purposes we need to protect the US' assets in space. Our telecommunications and other technology bases rely on satellites that are owned and operated by NASA. To have countries like China join in with NASA for the sake of financing concerns needs to be implemented with caution, or just not done at all. However, Obama did make the right decision to work with the private sector. Outsourcing some engineering operations to companies like Boeing or Northrup Grumman is good for the longterm.
There's a lot of money at stake when it comes to foreign policy, but security should be our main concern. As investors, we must learn to use these top level decisions to evaluate the effects on industry.

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